農業板塊拉昇 俄烏戰爭導致穀物價格大漲
格隆匯2月24日丨俄烏戰爭導致穀物價格大漲,A股農業股拉昇。蘇墾農發、金健米業、北大荒漲超5%,荃銀高科、豐樂種業、亞盛集團、萬向德農等跟漲。國泰君安稱,俄羅斯和烏克蘭是全球最主要的穀物出口國,USDA數據預估2021/22年度俄羅斯小麥出口量為3500萬噸,烏克蘭出口量為2400萬噸,佔全球小麥出口總量的29%,另外烏克蘭玉米出口量佔全球出口總量的17%。俄烏戰爭導致WTI原油三天累計上漲7%,CBOT小麥上漲17%,玉米上漲10%,大豆上漲8%。現階段南美乾旱已經將全球穀物價格置於熊熊烈火之中,而兩個重量級穀物出口國之間的戰爭則無異於火上澆油。在戰爭沒有明確緩和信號出來之前,預計穀物價格整體維持強勢,國內重點關注玉米、澱粉價格超預期波動風險,油脂、生豬、白糖、棉花等重要農產品價格也會受到波及。
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