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植耀輝: 美股續挫道指五連跌 恆指考驗23,300點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(23日)持續近期頹勢,俄烏局勢繼續惡化,美國總統拜登宣布進一步制裁措施,加劇美股波動,最終道指下跌464點或1.38%,收報33,131點,標普500指數及納指亦分別下跌1.84%及2.57%。值得留意的是,道指已連跌五個交易日,年初至今已累跌8.82%,標普500指數累跌11.34%,納指更累跌達16.67%。 港股方面,在匯控(00005.HK)及美團(03690.HK)反彈支持下,恆指昨日有所反彈,全日計上升140點,收報23,660點,成交金額1,150億元。匯控及美團分別上升2.9%及3%,合共貢獻恆指106點。至於隔晚Home Depot(HD.US)業績遜預期,股價大跌之餘亦拖累創科(00669.HK)股價大跌4.6%,為恆指成份股中表現最差股份。 雖然大市昨日略為反彈,惟地緣政治因素依然是後市一大不確定性,隔晚美股急跌亦恐怕會影響恆指開市表現;另外,今日(24日)亦會有多間公司公布業績,焦點則集中於阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)身上。預期恆指或會進一步考驗23,300點支持。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ****************** 恆指仍未擺脫尋底之格局 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(23日)美股先升後跌,俄烏局勢仍然是市場焦點,美國正式對俄羅斯實施第一波制裁後,早段市場認為措施影響不大,帶動道指初段曾最多反彈逾200點。但其後市場認為制裁措施將會陸續有來,加上市場亦關注聯儲局仍有可能於下月加息0.5厘,避險情緒升溫,國際金價回升,道指亦於盤中曾挫逾500點。港股ADR普遍下跌,科技股亦是主要領跌板塊,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)績前於美股再創52週低,科技股於短期後市仍較大可能拖低大市。面對目前的眾多不明朗因素,烏俄局勢於短期內未見任何明顯改變,做好風險管理是目前最重要的選擇,投資者宜減低持貨水平或購買反向產品做好對沖,慎防後市出現更多「黑天鵝」事件。 此外,恆生指數公司稱經進一步分析後,將於下月7日被納入科指的商湯(00020.HK),指數流通系數由原先的35%降低至2%,公司於指數內模擬比重會被調整為0.24%,是各成份股當中最低,被動基金買貨規模由原先估計達18億元,急降至1億元。消息很大可能將拖累股價今日(24日)急挫。 港股技術走勢方面,恆指目前首個重要阻力位在50天線23,900點,一日未重越此關,後市亦隨時將會再跌穿1月及2月形成的小雙頂的頸線位置23,469點,一旦再次正式跌穿,以量度跌幅計,指數有可能下試22,000點心理關口之水平。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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