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《大行報告》中金:聯想集團及農夫山泉「染藍」 料獲被動資金各流入逾1億美元
就恆生指數公司上週五(18日)公佈半年度指數調整結果,成分股變化上,農夫山泉(09633.HK)和聯想集團(00992.HK)納入恆指;信義光能(00968.HK)納入恆生國企;商湯(00020.HK)、理想汽車(02015.HK)和小鵬汽車(09868.HK)納入恆生科技指數。中金髮表報告表示,就恆生指數此次半年度調整將納入農夫山泉和聯想集團2只股票,納入權重分別爲0.69%和0.46%;無股票被剔除,調整後成分股數量從64只進一步增加至66只,上述變動在3月7日正式實施。 該行指上述納入名單與該行此前預覽的結果有一定出入,存在部分差異的如其在報告中所說,主要是由於恆生系列指數調整最終結果並非完全基於量化標準、同時還會受到恆生指數調整委員會的主觀決策影響,因此加大了單純依照量化標準預測的難度。農夫山泉在該行預測順位的前列,而聯想盡管在中金根據量化標準篩選的長名單裏,但是否能獲得納入卻無法準確預判。 基於當前彭博彙總,追蹤恆生指數的ETF資金規模約爲226億美元,追蹤國企指數和恆生科技指數的ETF資金規模分別約爲49億美元和29億美元。結合上述成分股權重變化,該行測算了其潛在被動資金流向。進一步結合個股過去3個月日均成交額,便可以測算被動資金變化可能帶來的影響。第一是恆生指數,被動資金流入所需時間最多的聯想集團和農夫山泉預計均需要3.1天(料潛在被動資金流入1.04億及1.56億美元),其次京東集團(09618.HK)、新鴻基地產(00016.HK)、阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)、海底撈(06862.HK)、網易(09999.HK)和碧桂園服務(06098.HK),預計需要0.2到0.5天不等;相反,由於長江基建(01038.HK)的權重降低,預計將帶來2天左右時間的被動資金流出。 另一方面,由於匯豐控股(00005.HK)和友邦(01299.HK)的權重比例從調整前的9.13%和8.03%重置至8%,因此該行預計將帶來2.5億美元和4,747萬美元的資金流出。 此外,中金指恆生科技指數變動方面,料理想汽車、商湯和小鵬汽車的納入預計將帶來4,773萬美元、1.1億美元和2,961萬美元的被動資金流入,所需流入時間分別爲2.8、1.7和0.5天。(wl/k) ~
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