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高盛策略師:勞動力市場成爲美國公司財報電話會議的關鍵詞
uSMART盈立智投 02-17 23:19

高盛集團的策略師說,歷史罕見的勞動力市場吃緊、低失業率以及不斷上升的工資通脹正在擠壓利潤率,讓美國企業疲於應付。

David J. Kostin牽頭的策略師表示,通過對標普500指數成份股公司第四季度財報電話會議的分析可以看出,在勞動力參與率仍然低於疫情前水平的情況下,許多公司正在提高薪酬以吸引工人,這對企業利潤構成壓力。儘管薪資增速達到數十年來最快,但人手問題仍然存在,也是供應鏈中斷的原因之一。

“供應鏈中斷繼續影響利潤率,目前尚不清楚這些問題何時得到解決,”Kostin在一份報告中寫道。“最近一個季度的財報電話會議顯示,這些中斷將持續多久、我們距離正常化還有多遠,存在更多不確定性。”

儘管如此,Kostin表示,那些在供應鏈問題出現之初就採取行動的公司能夠保護利潤率,並說分析師們在財報季開始時低估了企業利潤的強勁程度。高盛還建議關注那些資產負債表強勁、利潤率穩定、能夠在投入成本通脹時期保護利潤的優質公司。

在迄今已公佈季度業績的標普500指數成份股公司中,53%比預期高出至少1個標準差,每股收益平均比預期高出8%,原因是利潤率好於預期。Kostin表示,他預計今年每股收益將增長8%,2023年將增長6%。

併購是電話會議上的另一個主要話題,因爲很多公司尋求通過併購交易來推動戰略增長並回報股東。但在去年美國宣佈的併購交易達到創紀錄的3.1萬億美元之後,Kostin表示,由於盈利增長下降和反壟斷審查增加,他預計2022年交易活動將放緩。

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