《大行報告》高盛料內地奶業受惠成本見頂需求增長 升伊利(600887.SH)及蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價
高盛發表研究報告,指內地乳業板塊自疫情爆發以來屬消費品領域中較具韌性,料今年仍處於較佳經營環境。今年以來該行留意到春節需求增長強勁,推廣開支穩定。該行稱,過去兩年液態奶銷售加快增長,特別是高端產品,市場或憂慮高端產品未來增長空間及宏觀經濟放緩的潛在影響。該行稱,內地人均保鮮裝牛奶及奶酪產品滲透率即使在多年快速增後,仍低於日本及南韓,並認為健康關注增加,及偏遠城市需求上行可帶來漸進增長。過去五年主要高端產品定價未有大幅改變,意味現時負擔能力更佳。今年春節需求亦意味即使在去年高基數下,仍料有雙位數穩固增長。
該行稱,按行業供需關係分析,進口奶價正在上升,中國原奶價格升至歷史高位。過去兩年供應增長持續高於需求量,料今明兩年內地奶價上行空間有限。另是輪價格上行周期未有刺激上游奶農進取加大投資,行業更趨整合,具規模農場為為主流。這料導致更理性供應擴張,與2014至2017年下行周期不同。另一焦點在於伊利(600887.SH)及蒙牛(02319.HK)對利潤率擴張的取態。兩企清楚表示未來利潤率目標,料利潤率上行可見度將更佳,特別是未來兩年奶成本環境料穩定。
另高盛稱,留意到兩企在產品類擴張有廣闊空間,如芝士及植物奶。人均滲透率低,消費者對營養的關注增加,及高投資,料在未來三年構成達雙位數需求增長的環境。在產品組合升級,成本壓力有限,折扣率收窄下,料兩企持續市佔擴張及利潤率穩定。長遠而言,持續市場整合及擴展至新品類將帶來奶業板塊銷售可持續雙位數銷售增長。
該行升蒙牛今明年盈測分別20%及18%,目標價由55元升至57.9元,評級「買入」;維持伊利「買入」評級,續列入確信買入名單,目標價由50元人民幣升至50.9元人民幣。
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