《大行報告》瑞銀料新一輪社交距離措施或維持逾90日 偏好領展多於九置 對辦公室收租股審慎
瑞銀髮表研究報告,引述政務司司長李家超上週末指,即使Omicron變種病毒大規模爆發,香港特區政府無計劃進行大規模封城。港府與廣東省政府成立了五個聯合專班,專注提升檢測及病理分析能力,建立隔離設施及維持醫療用品供應穩定。現時本港零售收租股股價略低於2020年12月至2021年2月食肆晚市完全被禁時期。因此,該行料市場仍未反映任何進一步收緊社交距離措施。參考2020年底一波疫情,該行料新一輪社交距離措施或維持逾90日。倘發生大規模封城,料零售收租業主料提供額外租金寬免,對短期股價構成進一步壓力。考慮2020年7月29至30日全日堂食被禁時期,料本港零售收租股將面對12%至22%額外下行敞口。另該行料零售商場人流將進一步減少35%,2至3月零售銷售將有18%至23%下行。
該行稱,預期民生商場(如領展)將跑贏核心區商場(如九龍倉置業、希慎、冠君),源於領展(00823.HK)民生必需品租戶佔比較高,在過去多輪疫情跑贏行業;參考內地封城經驗,或批準居民在鄰近商場購買日用品。同時,該行料新一波疫情對本港與內地通關蒙上陰影,倘通關進一步押後至2023年,以及在新一份《財政預算案》缺失消費刺激,料本港零售銷售今年或有中至高單位數下跌。
報告稱,近期政策迴應反映本港及內地政府決心執行「動態清零」。倘本港政府成功控制新一波疫情,料通關可期。不過,由於與國際通關可見度仍低,料更多國際企業及海外專才將決定縮減香港業務或離開香港,對香港辦公室市場需求帶來結構性挑戰。加上辦公室未來供應增加,對辦公室市場看法審慎。同時,瑞銀留意到本港住宅市場面對更大阻力,社交距離措施收緊壓抑成交,潛在GDP倒退帶來負面財富效應,海外專才離港,以及美國加息或快過預期。
瑞銀稱,本港零售收租股現估值相當於預測股息率4.7%,與2020至12月至2021至2月禁止晚市堂食時相若。在零售收租股中,偏好領展多於九龍倉置業(01997.HK),對辦公室敞口較大的如希慎(00014.HK)、冠君(02778.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)態度審慎。詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
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