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瑞銀財富管理:上調今年亞洲企業獲利增長預測至11.2%
阿思達克 02-11 16:11
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表報告,美國聯儲局轉向鷹派、Omicron疫情擴散以及中國房地產市場疲軟,導致投資者在亞洲面臨更加困難的新環境。但亞洲市場表現應會穩健,將今年亞洲(日本除外)企業獲利增長預測上調約1個百分點,至11.2%,主要是受南韓、新加坡和馬來西亞的驅動,以及近期對部分北亞貨幣匯率預測做出的調整。 該行認爲,隨着過去幾個月出行限制放寬,主要行業的供應鏈瓶頸已逐步緩解。儘管亞洲(日本除外)地區Omicron感染病例上升,使得近期面臨供應鏈再次中斷的下行風險,但預計對亞洲企業獲利的影響可控。此外,該行預期亞洲(日本除外)企業第四季業績按年增速或超過20%,而去年錄得雙位數獲利增長,預計今年該地區將錄得強勁的中雙位數回報率。 對於中國房地產行業,該行預期今年一、二線城市的房價將持穩,三、四線城市或將下跌至多4%。另外,預計住房銷售將下降6%至9%,房地產開發投資將收縮至多3%。估計預售資金監管放鬆或提供喘息之機,而再融資風險將在第一季帶來挑戰。 中國債券方面,該行指可繼續佈局於大型BB級債券和國有企業,股票方面,並不看好房地產股,但並非全盤否定,具體而言,市場龍頭(大型國企和資產負債表穩健的大型民企)有望受益於行業加速整合,並實現可持續的增長。
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