《大行報告》高盛升新世界(00017.HK)評級至「買入」 降恆地(00012.HK)至「沽售」
高盛發表報告指,本港在經濟增長放緩下邁向加息,持續與內地封關及受第五波疫情困擾,地產股估值比上一個加息週期更吸引,目前平均股息率約5.5%,而上一個週期約4.5%。
高盛將新世界發展(00017.HK)評級從「中性」上調至「買入」,原因是投資物業收益持續表現出色,使收入組合更快地轉向更穩定的經常性收入。考慮到物業發展的波動性,高盛將恆地(00012.HK)評級從「中性」下調至「沽售」,並將嘉里建設(00683.HK)評級從「買入」下調至「中性」,指這兩間地產商都在未來有較大的資本開支,這將提高負債率並降低股息增長的前景,尤其是在未來兩至三年,認為股息是該板塊股價的主要推動力。目標價詳見另表。
高盛重申對長實(01113.HK)的「買入」評級,預計其非房地產相關的基建和公用事業收益表現出色,將帶動其派息。
高盛將住宅樓價預測從2022至2024年間平均上漲4%,下調至今年持平,在2023至2024年期間每年下降5%,以反映利率上升、市民收入增長緩慢和中期供應增加。
該行料截至2024年底止,美聯儲將加息共2.5厘,並於下月啟動加息。加息行動將集中於前半段,今年料加息共1.25厘。該行料本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)將跟隨美加息步伐,但由於銀行體系結餘充裕,料滯後大約三個季度。料一個月HIBOR或由現時約0.2厘升至約2.6厘水平。
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