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渣打料內地上月通脹或進一步緩和
阿思達克 02-08 11:13
渣打發表報告,指由於需求疲軟和生產放緩,1月中國官方製造業PMI由去年12月的50.3略降至50.1。其中,新訂單指數降至49.3,連續第六個月位於收縮區間。同時,生產指數連續第二個月下滑,1月指數降至50.9。受疫情反覆和出行限制措施影響,1月服務業PMI降至近五個月的低谷50.3。密集接觸服務業PMI降至中位線50以下。此外,受冬季寒冷氣候和春節假期效應影響,建築業活動有所放緩。 由於食品價格按月下降,渣打預計中國1月CPI通脹按年漲幅或由去年12月的1.5%放緩至0.7%。考慮到豬肉價格恢復步伐慢於市場普遍預期,該行將今年CPI通脹預測由此前的2.5%下調至2.2%。與此同時,工業生產成本上升向產成品價格傳導和市場需求持續復甦的整體趨勢仍未改變。 另外,隨著供應鏈瓶頸持續緩解和不利基數效應的消退,渣打預計今年PPI通脹將延續下行趨勢,預料今年全年PPI通脹漲幅約為3.5%。
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