《大行報告》摩通:若內地火電股股價下跌10-15%或見底 今年盈利將明顯反彈
摩根大通發表報告,內地三大電企業預料去年第四季淨虧損總額超過250億元人民幣(下同),遠低於市場普遍預期,與該行對第一季盈利減弱的謹慎預期一致。該行認為,本周電力股將出現負面反應,股價可能會在下跌10%至15%後觸底,隨後可能出現買入機會,在電費上調約10%至20%和煤價下跌的情況下,今年可能會出現顯著盈利反彈。
摩通表示,市場預測華能(00902.HK)2021年第四季盈利30億元,華潤電力(00836.HK)2021年下半年盈利27億元,該行認為這預測不太可能發生,因為主要火電企業預期單季度淨虧損約80億元,疲弱的業績將為分析師下調盈利預期提供充分的理由,而獨立發電企業的股價在短期內可能仍然偏軟。
摩通認為,華潤電力在基本情形下不會發盈警,預測其2021財年盈利按年下降約30%,認為該股將在盈利預測下調下,短期內股價繼續被拖累。
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