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交銀國際料內地今年光伏新裝機增40% 首選福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)
交銀國際近日發表新能源行業報告表示,國家能源局公布2021年全國光伏裝機情況,新增裝機約53吉瓦按年增長10%,接近行業協會去年12月預測45-55吉瓦的上限,但低於年初市場普遍預期的60吉瓦。 該行預計,2022年全國光伏新增裝機按年增加約40%至75吉瓦,需求高增將推動光伏製造企業業績增長,首選具有明顯成本優勢和產能快速擴張的光伏玻璃龍頭福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)。 交銀國際預計,內地去年下半年以來的電價改革導致工商業電價明顯上浮,特別是高耗能企業電價,同時能耗雙控下新增可再生能源不再納入能源消費總量控制,極大地提高了工商業分佈式的裝機積極性;同時,整縣屋頂分佈式光伏開發試點今年將實際落地,將推動戶用裝機在高基數下繼續按年增長;今年分佈式新增裝機將達約35吉瓦。 該行預計,今年硅料供應仍將偏緊,由於分佈式項目收益率較高,對投資成本敏感性更低,因此其裝機量佔比將維持在較高水平。 該行維持對福萊特玻璃「買入」評級及目標價41.8元;該行維持對信義光能(00968.HK)「買入」評級及目標價18.88元;該行維持對龍源電力(00916.HK)「買入」評級及目標價21.83元;該行維持對信義能源(03868.HK)「買入」評級及目標價6.09元。
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