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《大行報告》花旗降本港首季GDP增長預測至2.8% 料年底失業率降至3.4%
阿思達克 01-25 16:19
花旗發表研究報告,指本港短期政策關注仍在疫情控制以恢復通關,包括實施更嚴厲社交距離措施,以及推升疫苗接種率。該行下調本港今年首季本地生產總值(GDP)預測0.2個百分點至2.8%,以反映Omicron變種帶來社交限制,所導致的消費減少。 報告稱,餐飲及娛樂埸所禁晚市,無可避免幹擾去年聖誕至今年元旦期間的消費復甦勢頭。該行認爲,收緊社交距離措施旨在最終通關。港府仍目標今年年中與內地大規模免檢疫通關,料疫苗氣泡將提早至春節後開始,預期至2月底止接種首劑疫苗人口比率將增至90%,料在受限制行業復業後,將迎來強勁消費復甦。對受影響行業的財政補助已公佈,料2月底新一份《財政預算案》將有更多刺激措施出臺。 花旗稱,在連續兩年衰退後,料今年本港將迎來第二年復甦。爲穩固復甦勢頭及迎接2022年及以後的「新常態」,該行料本港將有一系列政策,建立更智慧、環保城市及加強與內地連接。除了迫切通關目標外,中期工作目標料更具挑戰性而關鍵。該行認爲,社會預期下一任行政長官將處理土地及房屋發展解決方案,以及疫情後爲創科進行升級,以捕捉商機。即使面對財政限制,料政府將調撥資源完成目標。 該行料今年本港經濟增長3.8%,至今年底失業率料進一步改善至3.4%近疫情前水平,並料復甦另一大支柱來自消費、旅遊及整體服務業就業改善。 花旗料今年本港通脹年率將由前值料約1.6%加快至2.5%。經濟復甦,及能源及食品價格上升將對通脹構成上行壓力。該行補充,飛機貨運運力減少或維持更長時間,將對進口食品構成影響。此外,該行料即使美聯儲今年開始加息及縮表,本港今年整體流動性料大致維持充裕。
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