《大行報告》美銀證券降嗶哩嗶哩-SW(09626.HK)目標價至769元 評級「買入」
美銀證券發表研究報告,預計嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)將於2月下旬公布第四季業績,美銀基本維持季度月活躍用戶(MAU)達到2.7億及58億元人民幣收入預測,略高於市場預期。
美銀指,沒有新遊戲版號獲批,持續對遊戲業務增長造成壓力,預期第四季遊戲收入增幅將由20%降至15%,但廣告收入增長將抵銷遊戲疲軟表現。美銀將毛利率預測略微下調至19%,預期營銷佔收入比重與第三季持平,並將第四季非國際會計準則下淨利潤率預測維持在30%。
美銀將今年首季收入預測下調至55.7億元人民幣,略低於市場預期,認為嗶哩嗶哩有望在2023年實現4億月活躍用戶的目標,並預計2022至2023年的用戶淨增長幅度將與2021年相近,達到超過6,000萬。
假設今年下半年可推出更多新遊戲,美銀將2022年收入增長預測下調6%至增長34%;由於宏觀不確定性,將2022年廣告及增值服務增長率預測下調至55%及43%,全年利潤率降低2%,相應將今明兩年收入預測下調6%及8%,每股盈利預測下調7%及16%。美銀將嗶哩嗶哩的目標價下調至769元(原本932元),仍然看好公司長期用戶規模擴張及變現率,重申「買入」評級。
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