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中航系集體暴跌,軍工股民哭慘

一直以來,軍工股因為故事題材天花亂墜、行情波動大又常常“A股一日暢遊”,而被不少股民稱之為“渣男”。

當然,“渣男”也有濃情蜜意的時刻,2019年後,軍工開啟了長達3年的長牛行情。在此期間,軍工ETF甚至超過117%。過去一年,軍工板塊是與新能源鋰電、光伏一起傲視大A的“三劍客”。

新年伊始,這一板塊又開始持續陰跌。年初至今,軍工ETF已經累跌14%。醫療、芯片、新能源板塊想要和軍工板塊比慘,可能都要掂量掂量自己的跌幅分量。

今日,軍工板塊再度大跌。尤其是中航系,跌得慘不忍睹。中航重機跌停封板,中航高科跌逾7%,中航沈飛跌逾6%,中航機電、中航西飛跌逾5%。難道是“渣男”本質又現了原形?

因為信息相對不夠公開透明,軍工板塊的漲跌波動極大,也極其容易受市場情緒的影響。近期,幾隻軍工概念股2021年業績預吿相繼出爐,不及預期的業績,讓悲觀的情緒在A股中蔓延。

昨日,中航機電發佈業績預報。預報顯示,去年全年,公司實現營收實現營業總收入149.86億元,同比增長22.59%;歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤為12.59億元,同比增長17.18%;扣非歸母淨利潤11.03億元,同比增長21.61%。

其中,Q4公司實現營收34.24億元,同比降低12.68%,環比減少7.3%;歸母淨利潤為4.1億元,同比減少9%,環比增加14.2%。

Q3的增長,轉眼到了Q4就變成下滑,較大的反差影響了市場的情緒。也讓投資者對於軍工股未來的走勢產生了悲觀的預期。加之,軍工因為信息本身較其他行業更為不透明,市場對於軍工板塊未來業績的不確定性預期也在增強。

業績明顯不及預期,資金紛紛出逃,情有可原。可更讓不少股民鬱悶的是,有傳言稱,這份業績預報是中航集團為了“穩增長”主基調與公司股權激勵做出“讓步”,下調了旗下公司的業績。也有人稱,這樣的“讓步”是將買方賣方將軍工變成白馬的多年不懈努力,在今朝付之一炬。但截至發稿,中航集團尚未對此市場傳聞做出迴應。

事實上,去年不少軍工股的業績都是逐季度走低的。去年前三季度,中航機電營收增速分別為72.45%、36.72%、19.35%;中航重機營收增速分別為34.33%、36.82%、5.50%;中航沈飛營收增速分別為1.56%、72.06%、22.88%。

(中航機電單季度營業收入增速)

這與軍工企業接到訂單的時間節點有關。2020年因為疫情,上半年行業的業績明顯受到衝擊,導致業績基數較低,進而導致去年不少軍工企業在Q1或者Q2的增速明顯拔高。2020年訂單因疫情耽誤的訂單順延至Q3,又導致2021年Q3的基數過高而增速放緩。

從中航機電三季報的合同負債來看,截至去年前三季度,公司合同負債餘額為17.36億元,同比增長446.03%。這也意味着,中航機電其實並不缺訂單,而未來的業績也還有一定的兑現空間。

可以説,業績不及預期,只是加快了軍工板塊下跌的過程。自2022年開年以來,A股市場情緒低迷,賽道板塊高低切換,才是更為重要的主因。

既然軍工能與新能源鋰電、光伏一起在去年傲視A股,在後兩個板塊經歷大幅下挫時,又怎麼會少了軍工板塊的身影。

從估值來看,軍工ETF的行業PE出於歷史48.28%的位置,在過去十年中,處於較低的位置。

但是從PB的角度來看,軍工ETF的PB已經到了歷史75%分位區間,處於過去十年中較高的歷史位置。

低PE高PB,反而意味着這個行業去年雖然呈現出了較高的增長,但從長期的盈利能力來看,軍工行業反而存在被市場高估的情況。

近期,中央一直強調“穩增長”,央行也持續推出穩增長的貨幣政策,降準、降息相繼出台。此前經歷大幅回撤的房地產、基建、家用電器等板塊逐漸回暖,而類似新能源鋰電、光伏、軍工這類去年漲幅過高、市場預期過高的成長股也就紛紛被大資金們所拋棄。

畢竟,身體保健藥和重症用藥,它能一樣嗎?

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