《大行報告》中金:H股必需消費品板塊估值或有提升機會 薦蒙牛(02319.HK)及康師傅(00322.HK)
中金發表報告,就港股必需消費板塊重點公司進行2021年度業績預覽,整體看板塊去年下半年利潤表現略承壓,利潤增速或不及收入,主要由於原材料價格呈逐季上漲趨勢致去年下半年成本壓力增大。展望今年,該行判斷板塊收入增速有望穩步回升,成本壓力隨原材料價格波動仍具一定不確定性,今年上半年壓力仍存。但考慮板塊股價已出現較大幅度回調,板塊市盈率當前處於過去三年較低位置,部分公司盈利下調風險亦基本反映,該行認為板塊估值或有提升機會,並建議關注基本面有明顯改善及具備長期成長邏輯的行業龍頭。
報告稱,板塊去年下半年利潤表現整體承壓,利潤增速或不及收入;另今年年收入有望穩步回升,成本壓力仍具不確定性。成本端受原材料價格走勢影響或仍有壓力,尤其是今年上半年。
中金稱,板塊估值處於近三年較低位置,分化趨勢延續。港股飲食板塊目前估值相當於預測動態市盈率26.9倍,較2021年1月高點51倍已出現較大估值回調,主要由於部分港股高估值公司業績不及市場預計和市場風險偏好轉變。細分公司看,大部分公司目前估值均低於過去三年平均水平。報告認為,目前整體港股公司估值處於相對較低水平,同時相對A股食飲板塊,港股估值仍處偏低位置,板塊配置價值有所提升。
報告維持個股評級,板塊中,中金推薦蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)及康師傅控股(00322.HK),同時建議關注周黑鴨(01458.HK)及頤海國際(01579.HK)的潛在業績復甦趨勢,均予「跑贏行業」評級,詳見另表。
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