老牌基金GMO創辦人:美股或處100年來的第四場“超級泡沫” 進入歷史性崩盤
格隆匯1月21日丨投資界名人、老牌基金GMO創辦人Jeremy Grantham稱,美國股市正處於過去100年來的第四場“超級泡沫”中。他確信,這次泡沫會像1929年股災、2000年互聯網泡沫破滅和2008年金融危機時一樣破裂,使大盤指數回到統計正態甚至可能進一步下跌。這意味標普500指數可能會跌至2500點左右,較1月4日觸及的高位下跌48%。他指出,最早的跡象出現在去年2月,當時有幾十只最具投機性的股票開始下跌。一個指標是方舟投資(ARK Invest)創辦人伍德(Cathie Wood)的Ark Innovation ETF自那以來跌去52%。然後是羅素2000指數在2021年跑輸標普500指數,前者成份股主要爲中型股,通常會在牛市中表現出色。他又稱,“投資者行爲瘋狂”,預示着泡沫進入後期階段,網紅股,電動汽車股買盤狂熱,狗狗幣等的加密貨幣崛起,以及NFT價格動輒數百萬美元。他表示,超級泡沫已經完全角成,狂風驟雨隨時可能到來,當悲觀情緒迴歸市場時,面臨的潛在財富縮水程度可能會是美國歷史上最大的,這可能堪比1980年代末日本股市和房地產市場雙雙崩盤的影響。他認爲,不僅股市存在超級泡沫,債市也有泡沫,全球房地產有史上最廣泛、最極端的泡沫,大宗商品價格出現泡沫萌芽。據他計算,即便不是完全迴歸到統計趨勢水平,光是美國的損失就可能達到35萬億美元。
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