內房股延續大漲,開發商預售款限制放鬆有助改善流動性
uSMART盈立智投1月20日,內房股延續週三升勢,融創中國漲超10%,龍光集團、世茂集團漲幅均在9%以上。
近日內房股迎多重利好,人行釋放積極的穩增長信號,昨日路透報道,中國據悉考慮放鬆地產開發商動用託管賬戶商品房預售資金的限制。今日一年期、五年期LPR雙雙下調。
路透報道,中國正在起草全國性的規定,放鬆對房地產開發商使用預售監管賬戶資金的限制,以作爲緩解地產行業流動性壓力的最新舉措。
報道稱,新規將允許開發商使用由各地政府控制的資金監管賬戶,從而幫助開發商償付債務、支付供應商等。新規將由中國住建部等部門在國務院金融穩定發展委員會的指導下起草,計劃最早在1月底推出這一新規,國務院新聞辦公室和住建部沒有立即迴應置評請求。
Jefferies分析師指出,如果消息屬實,也並不令人驚訝,這是中央政府最後可以放鬆的項目之一,並預計能給地方政府的具體實施提供明確的方向,也能改善開發商短期流動性。
消息與過去幾個月監管通過放鬆對開放商的融資限制來穩定房地產市場的立場一致。
現金流緊張、融資渠道受限的開發商是主要受益者,包括融創中國、世茂集團、雅居樂、富力地產以及中國奧園。
由於優先確保項目交付,預計寬鬆程度是相對溫和的,不過仍有助於開放商在地產銷售出現復甦之前爭取時間償還債務。
預計地產板塊將會在接下來的幾天內繼續反應積極,不過由於投資者情緒脆弱,在消息證實前很難形成持續的短期上漲趨勢。
花旗指出,預計潛在的託管賬戶寬鬆更可能是地方層面對個別開放商的獨立執行,而沒有正式的通告。
時間上潛在的政策支持窗口預計在1月底的春節前,以及三月中旬兩會後。
儘管對基本面的影響仍取決於官方政策發佈,但預計消息將會對行業股價有積極影響,料有約10%-20%的上行空間。
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