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中金:料內銀股“否極泰來”行情持續 推薦招行、平安銀行、郵儲銀行

中金髮研報表示,人行此次LPR下調基本符合預期,主要反映1月17日MLF利率下調的影響。由於去年12月後影響加點的因素短時間變化較小,1年期LPR跟隨MLF同幅度下行10個基點,而按揭貸款利率近幾個月已有下降但供給仍然偏緊,因此5年期LPR僅下行5個基點。

該行指,降息的影響包括MLF下調導致內銀負債成本節約;第二是LPR下調銀行貸款收益率下降;第三是市場利率中樞也可能相應下降。該行測算此次降息對內銀對淨息差負面影響約1.9個基點,相當於淨利潤2%。

中金指,招行(3968.HK)、平安銀行(000001.SZ) 、寧波銀行(002142.SZ)等銀行由於資產和負債結構因素受到影響小於同業。考慮到銀行會主動調整資產負債結構應對息差壓力,且存款自律定價機制調整節約負債成本效應逐漸顯現,降息實際影響較小,該行維持今年銀行淨息差小幅收窄2至5個基點的判斷。

而相比淨息差壓力,該行指內銀股信用成本是現階段影響利潤的主要因素,穩增長政策有助於改善銀行資產質量預期。中金繼續看好內銀股全年“否極泰來”,重申推薦資產質量良好、且受益於財富管理和金融科技機遇的招行、平安銀行、郵儲銀行(1658.HK) 。

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