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《大行報告》瑞銀上調恆生(00011.HK)目標價至178元 升東亞(00023.HK)評級至「中性」
瑞銀髮表報告指,就基本面而言,預測香港銀行業在2022至2023年的盈利增長將達到14%至16%(mid-teen)。而目前銀行股的估值低於歷史平均水平,主要是受市場情緒疲軟影響,仍未充分反映到美聯儲加息帶來的作用,若有形股本回報率(ROTE)在盈利上升方面有所改善,本地銀行股料將獲市場重評。 報告指,美國可能加息對銀行股帶來的幫助即將到來,由於香港拆息的上升緊隨美聯儲加息的步伐,預計香港銀行的淨利潤率在2022至2023年將按年擴大5至11個基點。 另外,最近Omicron的不確定性引發對香港經濟的擔憂,該行目前仍預計2022至2023年的本港GDP增長爲3%至4%,認爲香港GDP的穩固復甦以及和內地潛在通關,可以支持貸款需求和資產質量,預計香港銀行業的貸款按年增長將達到中單位數。 瑞銀亦對香港銀行在中資開發商貸款方面的下行風險進行壓力測試,總括而言,相關風險對香港的銀行業應爲可控,預計2022年將有更多溫和的政策寬鬆,應會減輕潛在的房地產衰退帶來的風險。 瑞銀維持恆生(00011.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由165元升至178元;中銀香港(02388.HK)亦維持「買入」評級,目標價維持34元。兩股對利率上升有較好的適應性,而且對中國的風險敞口較小。東亞(00023.HK)評級由「沽售」升至「中性」,目標價由12.8元略降至12.5元,瑞銀指對其中國房地產風險敞口和低ROTE持謹慎態度。
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