瑞銀料內銀股升勢在本季持續 次季或跑輸其他行業
瑞銀中國金融業研究主管顏湄之表示,內地銀行股目前估值低,價格已經反映了市場上的風險,相信投資者願意買入,預料內銀股升勢會在第一季持續。
顏湄之估計,大型國有銀行今年盈利會有約6%增長,不過若市場逐漸穩定,中央對各行業監管力度到頂,預料從第二季開始經濟增速見底,寬鬆政策發揮效用,其他股票板塊復甦,料內銀股有可能跑輸其他行業。
顏湄之指,今年內地貨幣和財政政策普遍呈現放鬆狀態,包括預料人民銀行會再次降準,在房地產行業和需求下行,加上預計人民銀行下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)以及流動性高拖低利率,均對淨息差添壓。她說,中國今年有可能下調LPR一次,但認為銀行不可能減息太多次,否則人民幣面對的匯率壓力會較大。
顏湄之指,部分銀行反映,年初以來對工業的信貸投放量不錯,不過本月的整體貸款量沒有去年般強,零售業務較弱,其中房地產銷售下滑導致按揭業務減少,消費類貸款也較預期弱。該行料今年內地社會融資總量按年上升9.8%,貸款增長11%至12%。
顏湄之說,該行就房地產違約情形對各銀行進行了壓力測試,認為結果顯示對他們不良資產的影響可控,不過由於房地產產業鏈長,該行業活動放緩對經濟增長帶來風險。
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