《大行報告》高盛上調今年內房債違約率預測至19% 迎來債務到期高峯
高盛發表研究報告指,去年底內地房地產企業高收益債出現幾宗大規模違約,最近數週雖未見大量支付逾期(違約)情況,但緊張情緒加劇。這反映於債務置換或債務延長方案增加。
考慮信貸緊張加劇及市場壓力持續,該行上調今年內房違約預測。在基本情境下,料內房高收益債違約率達19%,高於原先預期的11.5%。在悲觀情境下更有可能高達31.6%(原先爲25.4%),而在樂觀情境料見10.5%(原先爲4.3%)。
高盛表示,未來數個月將有大量內房高收益債到期,料潛在發生更多債務置換或債務延長,以及有更多違約個案發生。該行估算2022年1月餘下時間有36億美元內房債到期,3月有33億美元,4月另有37億美元內房債到期。
該行中國經濟師團隊維持今年內地房策溫和放寬預期,但料不會有重大房地產需求刺激。
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