中銀香港(02388.HK)料本港今年經濟增長約3% 中國GDP增長5%至5.5%
中銀香港(02388.HK)首席經濟學家鄂志寰預期,今年內地經濟發展以「穩」為主,進出口料為經濟增長帶來正面貢獻,GDP增長預期介乎5%至5.5%;消費則在疫情影響下復甦步伐較弱,估計需要政策支持。
至於香港,她指出周邊地區復甦有利於外貿需求上升,保守預期本港經濟增長約3%,接近過去10年平均增長率,當中已計及疫情影響,與失業率下降就業情況改善,帶動本地消費情緒向好。
她預期,疫情因素及各國為應對通貨膨脹而收緊寬鬆政策,兩大不確定性將影響今年全球整體經濟增長,仍相信2022年全球經濟增長會高於過去十年長期平均水平,但估計各國表現持續分化。
中銀香港資深經濟研究員蔡永雄指,香港住宅樓市近年持續於高位穩定徘徊,去年樓價上下波幅僅為7%,今年全球對經濟復甦抱有較大期望,政策相對寬鬆,單位供應緊張,預期今年樓市走勢維持穩定狀態。
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