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瑞銀汪濤料中國今年經濟增長5.4% 兩會前後或再降準
阿思達克 01-11 15:03
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤在電話會議上預期,中國今年首季經濟增長或仍然乏力,但第二季後可能有較明顯反彈,料全年經濟增長5.4%。 她指,受疫情反彈、消費復甦遲緩及就業不完整影響,去年下半年中國經濟表現疲弱,在疫情持續及舉行冬奧致防疫控制收緊下,預期今年首季內地消費會更疲軟,不過第二季開始料見恢復,全年消費估計增長約5.7%。至於出口雖然面對競爭加劇等問題,但相信全年仍可錄約10%升幅。 汪濤認爲,中國房地產行業對經濟貢獻大,由於政府推出三條紅線、限購及收緊信貸等政策,行業於去年第四季開始下滑,加上恆大危機造成的溢出效應,行業過去數月的銷售及新開工建設大幅下跌。她預期,中國政府會穩定房地產發展以穩經濟,未來或會放鬆按揭貸款限制,並可能要求銀行支持行業正常業務發展及地方放鬆限購措施等,相信有助緩解行業下行的深度及幅度,估計今年內地房地產銷售及新開工或下跌10%至12%,房地產投資則料降約5%。 另外,她又提到,內地今年或進一步推出財政寬鬆措施,包括地方加快專項債發行及減免部分稅項,人行今年亦料會再降準最少一次,下一次降準窗口估計在兩會前後的3月或4月,不過信貸利率預期未會下調。而人民幣匯率料小幅貶值約2%,兌美元今年底約在6.5水平。
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