國君有色：期現縮小，鋰現貨站穩30萬元大關
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：於嘉懿、寧紫微
週期研判：春節前備貨抓緊，鋰價漲勢加速
1）期貨端：無錫盤碳酸鋰2202合約上週漲6%至38.8萬元/噸；
2）鋰精礦：上週鋰精礦價格為2610美元/噸，較前一週上漲50美元/噸。
3）行業盈利：前期隨着精礦價格上漲，目前單噸鋰鹽毛利略降：從2.7→2.5→2.4→2.2萬左右，近期鋰鹽產品價格大幅上漲帶動冶煉毛利上修，近期由於鋰鹽價格上漲放緩毛利有所回落，目前鋰鹽冶煉毛利為單噸9.9萬元左右。國內原料價格短期易漲難跌，鈷鹽冶煉企業價格調整邏輯轉向需求主導。鈷業公司多向電新下游製造業延升，構成鈷-鎳-前驅體-三元的一體化成本優勢，增強競爭壁壘。
鋰板塊價格繼續上漲：上週現貨成交價點單：電池級碳酸鋰31萬元/噸，工業級碳酸鋰28-29萬元/噸，電池級氫氧化鋰25-26萬元/噸（跟漲）。一月電池級碳酸鋰大廠價29萬元/噸，因為春節所以提前談了2月的訂單，電池級碳酸鋰2月大廠價是32-33萬元/噸。電池級碳酸鋰大廠在12月和1月陸續檢修，供給的收縮也是促使價格上漲的一個催化。
增持：中礦資源、永興材料，
受益：天齊鋰業、科達製造、融捷股份、贛鋒鋰業、西藏礦業、盛新鋰能、天華超淨、西藏珠峯、江特電機、川能動力、藏格控股。
鈷原料價格後市看好，鈷鹽市場成交暫清淡：由於海外船運壓力較大，疊加貿易商庫存量少，鈷中間品供給緊缺，預計價格將小幅上漲；電鈷下游準備春節前採貨，疊加頭部企業縮減產量，價格有望春節前小幅上行。鈷鹽上週市場成交清淡，廠家多以詢單為主。
受益：華友鈷業、寒鋭鈷業、洛陽鉬業、格林美。
正極材料春節前需求旺盛，漲價傳導順暢：磷酸鐵鋰報價不斷上行，但下游客户接受程度較高，價格傳導順利。電池企業拿貨積極，疊加頭部企業新增產能加速釋放，12月磷酸鐵鋰產量再創新高；儲能方面，以央企為首的新能源企業紛紛加大儲能佈局力度，構建風光併網條件下的新型電力系統，對儲能需求熱度不減。三元材料：中低鎳三元面臨着與磷酸鐵鋰企業爭奪碳酸鋰資源的局面，部分企業貨源受限，訂單交付能力受到影響；而下游年前備貨補庫需求較強，疊加海外電池廠近期產能釋放，整體需求不斷回暖。
風險提示
新能源汽車增速不及預期。新能源汽車用鋰佔鋰行業供給約1/3，且貢獻未來鋰行業大部分需求增量。若新能源汽車增速不及預期，鋰行業發展將大受影響。
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