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瑞信:維持對內地啤酒行業正面看法,首予重慶啤酒跑贏大市評級

瑞信發表報吿指,百威亞太(1876.HK)去年股價跌21%,同期恆指跌14%,現估值相當於未來12個月預測企業價值對EBITDA約15倍,較上市以來均值低出1.4個標準差,致使該行相信大部分負面因素已被反映,認為最差時間已經過去。由於疫情影響消減,去年末季中國內地業務改善,南韓業務受惠低基數,即使12月受社交距離措施影響。該行上調百威亞太投資評級,由“中性”升至“跑贏大市”,目標價維持23.5港元。

該行估算藍妹/Corona品牌去年在中國銷量增長20%至30%,Hoegaarden錄得較高增長,上述三個品牌在同價段產品中增長均最快。中期而言,料百威亞太高端及超高端板塊於2021至2023年間在中國銷量可錄10%年均複合增長,帶動公司税息折舊及攤銷前盈利(EBITDA)及純利年均複合增長分別達11%及16%。

在去年11月核心板塊加價後,該行料公司在去年12月為部分高端及超高端產品提價低單位數。其全球採購網絡,經營改善及其他成本措施料減輕成本壓力。

瑞信另一報吿補充,整體而言,經過去年向下重評後,維持對內地啤酒行業正面看法,料高端化趨勢可支持穩固盈利展望。重大投入成本通脹促使啤酒商提升出廠價。該行喜好依次為華潤啤酒(0291.HK)、青島啤酒(0168.HK)、重慶啤酒(600132.SH)、最後為百威亞太。

該行予潤啤“跑贏大市”評級,目標價84港元;予青啤H股“跑贏大市”評級,目標價由88港元升至90港元;首予重慶啤酒“跑贏大市”評級,目標價170元人民幣。

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