中藥股午後拉昇丨附國海醫藥《再論中藥OTC應該如何選股》
格隆匯1月6日丨紅日藥業漲超17%,新天藥業封漲停板,仁和藥業、健民集團、益盛藥業、粵萬年青、千金藥業等跟漲,康惠製藥和神奇製藥上午已漲停。國海醫藥日前發佈中藥行業專題研究之二——再論中藥OTC應該如何選股,國海醫藥稱:從產品本質看,【中藥OTC】可分為兩類不同屬性產品:1、名貴中成藥OTC;2、普通品牌中成藥OTC。名貴中成藥OTC具備一定的保健品屬性,同時產品品牌力強,其銷售依賴度相對較低;普通品牌中藥OTC自身亦具備一定品牌知名度,但產品治療屬性更為明顯,更依賴企業自身的銷售推廣能力實現增長。名貴中成藥OTC——量、價均能夠實現快速齊升。銷量方面,中藥(包括中藥OTC、中藥處方藥)整體銷量增長不明顯,但近年來主要名貴中成藥OTC品種均實現了銷量快速增長(如安宮牛黃丸近年來銷量複合增長20%,片仔癀近年來銷量複合增長15-20%等)。價格方面,名貴中成藥OTC具備較強的提價權,是否實施提價更多取決於企業意願&社會輿論,並不需要過多考慮市場競爭因素。名貴中成藥OTC——四大投資標的質地簡析。A股名貴中成藥OTC共有四大投資標的:同仁堂、片仔癀、廣譽遠、健民集團(名貴中成藥核心原材料體外培育牛黃的獨家供應商)。1、片仔癀持續表現優秀;2、同仁堂、廣譽遠前期均存在公司治理問題,在更換控股股東或董事長後,公司治理有望實現改善,值得密切關注;3、健民集團參股子公司核心產品體外培育牛黃定價能力極強,前期市場對此業務有所忽視,有望迎來價值重估!普通品牌中藥OTC——銷量穩健增長、同時價格具備一定提價權,須更關注同品類中競爭能力強、市場份額高的企業。從提價權來看,同品類中市場份額越高,通常提價權越強。同時企業自身的營銷能力越強,也能夠保證終端價格體系的順暢,保證提價後渠道利益不受損、並保持自身市場份額。普通品牌中成藥OTC——企業長期成長持續性影響因素眾多,需嚴苛優選標的。普通品牌中成藥OTC標的相對較多,大市值公司比如雲南白藥、華潤三九等,小市值公司比如羚鋭製藥、馬應龍等,選股需嚴格結合企業產品在同品類中的市場份額以及企業自身的營銷能力。考慮到企業業務的簡單、清晰、可研究性,目前我們建議重點關注羚鋭製藥,亦可關注馬應龍。1、羚鋭製藥中高端貼膏通絡祛痛膏實現15%左右穩定增長,低端貼膏系列市場份額高,亦具備一定提價能力,同時公司今年6月實施股權激勵保障業績;2、馬應龍痔瘡治療類藥藥店市場份額高,亦具備一定提價權,公司長期有望持續實現15%左右穩定增長。建議重點關注個股:健民集團,羚鋭製藥;亦可關注:濟川藥業,馬應龍,同仁堂,廣譽遠,片仔癀,雲南白藥,華潤三九。中藥行業受國家政策扶持,板塊估值水平較低,主要產品具備一定的提價權,相關公司增長平穩確定,維持推薦評級。風險提示:部分產品漲價不及預期的風險;公司治理結構改善低於預期的風險;國家鼓勵中醫藥發展政策落地低於預期的風險;體外培育牛黃與天然牛黃功效差異的風險。
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