豬肉股持續走強,傲農生物(603363.SH)兩連板
格隆匯1月5日丨豬肉板塊持續走強,傲農生物(603363.SH)兩連板,新希望漲超8%,巨星農牧、天康生物漲近5%,正邦科技、温氏股份、牧原股份、金新農、雙匯發展等漲超3%。

興業研究指出,當前豬週期自2018年5月開啟以來至今已經44個月,非常接近過去豬週期的典型長度。由此來看,新一輪豬週期可能在2022年第二季度開啟。不過,隨着勞動年齡人口的見頂回落,我國的豬肉消費也在2014年見頂後逐漸下降。按照目前能繁母豬產能的調減節奏推算,豬肉供需可能到2023年第一季度才會回到較為均衡的狀態。
國泰君安亦指,從時間上看,本輪生豬週期的價格拐點預計在2022年4到6月份,時間窗口持續臨近;從空間上看,能繁母豬去化累計已達7%左右,2022年一季度在低豬價下有望加速去化,到2022年一季度末累計去化幅度有望達12%以上。
國海證券表示,從長期來看,過度分散的行業格局帶來了較大的整合機會,非瘟發生以來,龍頭企業加速產能佈局,市佔率逐步提升,而在週期下行階段,成本領先的企業優勢會更加容易勝出。以往週期散養户影響更大,隨着規模化提升,規模場的產能變化將決定行業的拐點。從頭均市值來看,多數公司已處於或者接近歷史低位,生豬板塊已具備長期投資空間。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.