豬肉股持續走強 新一輪豬週期或在2022年第二季度開啟
格隆匯1月5日丨豬肉板塊持續走強,傲農生物(603363.SH)兩連板,新希望漲超8%,巨星農牧、天康生物漲近5%,正邦科技、温氏股份、牧原股份、金新農、雙匯發展等漲超3%。興業研究指出,當前豬週期自2018年5月開啟以來至今已經44個月,非常接近過去豬週期的典型長度。由此來看,新一輪豬週期可能在2022年第二季度開啟。不過,隨着勞動年齡人口的見頂回落,我國的豬肉消費也在2014年見頂後逐漸下降。按照目前能繁母豬產能的調減節奏推算,豬肉供需可能到2023年第一季度才會回到較為均衡的狀態。國泰君安亦指,從時間上看,本輪生豬週期的價格拐點預計在2022年4到6月份,時間窗口持續臨近;從空間上看,能繁母豬去化累計已達7%左右,2022年一季度在低豬價下有望加速去化,到2022年一季度末累計去化幅度有望達12%以上。

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