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惠譽博華:內地經濟下行壓力凸顯 料今年仍具一定降準空間
惠譽評級旗下惠譽博華髮表報告指出,2021下半年,人行連續通過全面降準、定向降息、全面降息等多項貨幣政策工具,爲市場注入流動性。相較於公開市場操作,降準的流動性傳導效率較高,有效降低商業銀行負債成本壓力。受益於以存款爲主導的負債結構,國有銀行及農村商業銀行的負債成本下降程度高於其他類型銀行。 惠譽博華指出,從流動性指標來看,商業銀行整體流動性保持平穩,但不同類型銀行流動性水平有所分化,區域性銀行流動性比例整體優於全國性銀行;2021年上半年,大中型銀行短期流動性指標有所承壓,反映在上市銀行流動性覆蓋率按年下降9.6%;國有銀行及農村商業銀行長期流動性水平較高,部分股份制銀行淨穩定資金比率及流動性匹配率僅略高於監管要求,未來或存在達標壓力。 展望2022年,惠譽博華認爲銀行業流動性水平將較2021年略爲寬鬆,流動性指標總體保持平穩,降準及降息的相繼落地或將緩解銀行負債緊張程度,短期流動性水平或將有所改善。隨着經濟下行壓力的不斷凸顯,2022年仍具備一定的降準空間。
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