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摩通:看好香港寫字樓表現 行業首選為太古地產、長實集團等

摩通預期,香港今年住宅樓價升5%至10%,行業分類中較看好寫字樓表現,行業首選為太古地產(1972.HK)、長實集團(1113.HK)、新鴻基地產(0016.HK)及領展房產基金(0823.HK)。

摩通估計,隨着內地與香港逐步通關,兩地商業活動回覆正常,將支持寫字樓需求復甦,雖然預期今年零售銷售維持增長,但高端零售收租股仍缺乏議價能力,難上調租金水平;住宅市道方面,該行預期,發展商業務將會收縮,主要是公共房屋供應大增,以及發展商正尋求在現有業務提升“附加價值”,相信發展商今年表現分歧,尤其資產組合中以估值相對較高的商業地產為主發展商,將面臨被市場重新估值。

摩通收窄對地產股評級的分佈,將“中性”評級全部剔除,並預期行業今年整體回報約18%,但普遍下調本地地產股目標價,包括長實、新地、信和置業(0083.HK)等,並調整評級至“增持”;此外,摩通又看淡恆基地產(0012.HK),除下調目標價,又將評級降至“減持”,並其今年難以跑贏同業。寫字樓方面,預期中環至花園道一帶競爭仍然激烈,因此,較看淡冠君產業信託(2778.HK),降評級至“減持”。基於高端零售市道的不確定性,下調希慎興業(0014.HK)評級至“減持”。不過,由於預期香港全年零售銷售仍錄得9%增長,故上調民生為主的領展及置富產業信託(0778.HK)目標價,給予兩隻股份“增持”評級。

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