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瑞銀:家電股看好美的集團,料其盈利增長潛力最大

瑞銀髮表研究報吿指,受益於國內空調需求復甦,首選美的集團(000333.SZ),另外,大宗商品價格下降以及快速增長的2B業務貢獻上升,料明年盈利增長潛力最大。該行予老闆電器(002508.SZ)中性評級,目標價由48.3元人民幣下調至38元人民幣,主要是因為其核心業務(抽油煙機和爐灶)在房地產下行週期中或會保持低迷。

瑞銀在研究報吿指,中國消費品市場中主要看好家電板塊,預計受更換需求推動,行業銷量將在明年進一步復甦,加上大宗商品價格放緩的利潤率擴張潛力,可能支持白色家電公司在明年的盈利反彈。該行表示,在小家電領域上更有選擇性,首選蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)。

瑞銀預期,明年的物業竣工量下降12%將導致家電銷量下降4至6%,儘管與房地產相關的風險不容忽視,但料家電需求將在明年復甦,在積極的政策支持和滲透率上升的推動下,更換週期將會加快。該行預測明年空調╱冰箱╱洗衣機出貨量分別增長8%、3%、及2%,而油煙機出貨量則減少1%。

該行預計,隨着家電企業進一步多元化,房地產行業的影響將會減弱。額外銷售增長動力推動海爾智家(6690.HK)的海外市場份額,及美的在2B銷售的貢獻不斷增加。

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