花旗料今年本港經濟增長3.8% 失業率回落至3.5%
花旗預料,2022年本港經濟增長3.8%,2021年增長6.6%,預料2022年的經濟復甦預料主要由消費帶動,推動因素包括本地市民留港消費,政府預料年中會較大規模地通關。該行預期,2022年失業率會由2021年的5.5%回落至平均3.5%。
花旗銀行研究部香港經濟師雷智顏表示,對政府在新一份財政預算案推出短期刺激措施的期望不大,預料未來政府會較注重中長期佈局,不過要待新一任行政長官選出纔會有較明確方向,預料加速發展北部、與內地更緊密合作和增加土地供應,會是下任特首工作重點。
雷智顏說,雖然預計美國聯儲局今年會加息三次,但本港整體市場不會有資金短缺,不擔心貸款需求足以令利率快速上升,預料利率會維持在低位,估計未來12至18個月最優惠利率(P-rate)不會被推高,不認爲對於按揭供款造成很大困難、造成樓市泡沫爆破。
花旗預計,中國2022年經濟增長4.7%,2021年增長8.1%。雷智顏相信,由供應端造成的通脹會隨着時間消退,預料在2022年會有明顯改善,隨着PPI與CPI的距離收窄,滯脹壓力會減輕。
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