植耀輝: 標普全年累升28% 港股反彈阻力仍大
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股在2021年最後一個交易日(12月31日)表現一般,三大指數均錄得跌幅,不過交投相對淡靜。全年計,三大指數表現相當不俗,當中以標普500指數表現最佳,累升超過28%,其餘兩大指數方面,道指上升20.23%,納指亦升23.2%。
港股方面,雖然上周五只得半個交易日,但在新經濟股出現反彈下,恆指最終仍能上升285點或1.24%,收報23,397點。科技指數亦反彈3.6%,收報5,670點。不過全年計,恆指累跌14%,國指及科指跌幅更達到23.3%及32.7%,在環球股市中敬陪末座。今年困擾港股之因素不少,不少板塊跌幅相當驚人,例如醫藥股及教育股;即使成份股中亦有兩隻股份跌幅超過七成,分別是海底撈(06862.HK)及阿里健康(00241.HK),表現之差為近年所罕見。
儘管如此,但今年港股要重拾升勢仍有相當挑戰及變數,始終互聯網監管陰霾仍持續,內房債務問題仍是投資市場一大關注點,另外就是內地經濟未來表現。當然疫情之演化繼續是一大不確定性,加上環球收水及加息等因素,相信港股今年表現仍會相當反覆,短期先繼續關注23,000點水平,惟即使有所反彈,但23,800點之上阻力亦不輕,投資者亦只宜繼續留意早前提到之國策受惠板塊。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
********
恆指需站穩20天線才能終止中期弱勢
耀才研究部稱,踏入2022年首個交易周,中美市場有多項重要經濟數據公布。美國將會公布Markit以及ISM的PMI數據,市場預計分別達57.7及60.2,增長勢頭放緩不過仍處於擴張區間,而大小非農數據亦會於中後期發佈,美國新冠確診錄得逾51萬人數,打破當地疫情以來紀錄,留意對就業市場的打擊。另外中國將公布財新PMI,市場預計景氣將重返擴張區間,留能否跟隨官方數據為市場帶來驚喜。恆指目前卻只得9倍PE,跟其2至5年的平均值11.5倍亦相差了一個標準差以上,如果單純要以估值修復來預計股市2022年的走勢,恆指較樂觀的情況可達到27,500點水平,較目前有約兩成的升幅。
技術走勢來看,恆指上周反彈黃金比率0.5的目標23,500點止步回落,反彈力度有限,成交量於反彈時亦未有配合,恆指需站穩20天線才能終止中期弱勢。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.