《大行報告》美銀證券料今年樓價調整5-10% 新地(00016.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)遭降級至「中性」 恆地(00012.HK)下調至「跑輸大市」
美銀證券發表報告指,雖然香港地產股估值低迷(發展商估值較資產淨值折讓60%,收租股則折讓52%,較歷史平均水平闊1.5個標準差),但利率上升加上香港經濟展望疲弱,意味本港住宅樓價有下跌壓力,地產發展股缺乏催化劑。
該行繼續預期本港住宅樓價今年將下跌5%至10%,一手銷量料介乎持平至減少10%,主要由於內地的經濟放緩及美國開始加息。另一方面,美銀不預期在此環境下有監管政策推出,但當樓價上升過快時,相信政府未來或要面對更多採取行動的壓力。
美銀指太古地產(01972.HK)估值低迷但基本面穩定,與及有股份回購的可能性,將其評級由「中性」升至「買入」,目標價由23.6元升至25元;新地(00016.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)評級則同由「買入」降至「中性」,新地目標價由125元降至107元,新世界目標價由39元降至33元;至於恆地(00012.HK)評級由「中性」降至「跑輸大市」,目標價由33.2元降至28.5元。
行業中,該行喜好有資本管理往績的股份,收租股首選爲太古地產、領展(00823.HK)及希慎興業(00014.HK),發展商首選則爲長實集團(01113.HK)。平均而言,該行將地產行業目標價下調7%。
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