《回顧》李寧(02331.HK)膺全年藍籌升幅王 舜宇及中石油列升幅三甲
港股今年受中國加強監管互聯網及多個行業、內房企業接連出現債務違約,通脹走高引發對美聯儲收緊貨幣政策預期等多項因素影響,整體走勢偏弱,港股今年表現明顯跑輸外圍股市。於今年9月初晉身成「藍籌」的李寧(02331.HK)受惠「國潮」趨勢下令銷售增加,全年股價升幅膺藍籌升幅榜首位,全年累升60.1%。舜宇(02382.HK)及中石油(00857.HK)各錄45.3%及44.6%升幅,列升幅榜第二及第三位。
阿裏健康(00241.HK)、海底撈(06862.HK)及阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)則爲全年跌幅最大藍籌,全年各累挫71.2%、70.5%及48.9%。國指成分股方面,李寧、舜宇及中信股份(00267.HK)爲升幅最大的三隻股份。
科網企業面臨「強監管」環境下,騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK)全年累跌19%及23.5%。匯控(00005.HK)股價去年累跌33%後,英倫銀行今年12月中意外加息,匯控全年股價回升15.1%,港交所亦累升7.2%,兩股均跑贏大市。
【受惠於「國潮」熱 李寧升幅稱王】
體育用品股李寧於2020年股價累升1.28倍後,今年再累升60.1%。李寧年初曾回吐並跌至40元之下,但新疆棉爭議事件,引發內地「國潮」熱趨勢下,令收益增加及股價持續向上,8月底曾突破100元其後略爲回落。公司10月底宣佈配股集資逾百億,發展新類別業務、擴張國際市場及投資基礎設施。李寧管理層11月給予2022年銷售收入增長約20%至23%(low-20s)的指引。運動時尚策略堅定,公司長遠通過「李寧1990」自身增長或長期通過併購,料未來將可緩解來自同業安踏(02020.HK) 旗下FILA業務所帶來的業務壓力。
藍籌股升幅榜第二位爲舜宇,全年累升45.3%。雖然受到晶片問題困擾,但上半年手機鏡頭、車載鏡頭和手機攝像模組出貨量按年仍錄增長,兼且毛利率趨升,令公司今年上半年賺54%,其後市場憧憬車載鏡頭規格升級,市場亦追捧「元宇宙」概念。舜宇管理層於11月投資者會議料明年智能手機鏡頭升級將會開始,估計旗下手機攝像模組(CCM)明年毛利率可進一步改善。
藍籌股升幅榜第三位爲中石油,全年累升44.6%。油價隨各國恢復航空交通及經濟活動上升,防疫措施擾亂全球貨運業,運輸成本及通脹趨升,布蘭特期油由年初每桶約50美元至10月下旬升至86.72美元高位(曾累漲近69%),中石油公佈今年首三季淨利潤751.3億人幣按年大增近6.5倍,首三季集團原油平均實現價格爲每桶62.66美元按年增56.4%,而中石油10月中股價亦曾升至4.2元逾兩年高。
【海底撈沽壓重 科網及賭股弱】
阿裏健康、海底撈、及阿裏巴巴爲跌幅最大藍籌股。券高認爲,疫情下火鍋較不受歡迎影響海底撈業務。同屬阿裏系的阿裏巴巴及阿裏健康,則面對內地互聯網監管收緊問題。其中美國要求上市外企接受美方會計審覈,對在美上市的阿裏巴巴股價構成壓力。
互聯網監管亦影響其他科技股,騰訊及美團全年股價各累跌19%及23.5%。騰訊方面,國家新聞署嚴格限制未成年人玩網遊時間。美團除面對市監局就「二選一」壟斷罰款,亦被要求完善平臺傭金收費機制及加強外賣騎手合法權益保護。
受美聯儲提早收緊貨幣政策預期支持,匯控股價全年累升15.1%,跑贏恆指。港交所全年亦累升7.2%,除受惠中概股迴流,亦受惠獲準推出MSCI中國A50指數期貨產品。澳門博彩股表現較差,銀娛(00027.HK)及金沙中國(01928.HK)各累跌33%及46.7%,屬恆指成分股跌幅前列。博彩股股價9月因博彩牌照諮詢受壓,上月亦受到大型博彩中介高層被捕事件衝擊。(fc/w/t)
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