植耀輝: 美股回落交投淡靜 恆指半日市續窄幅上落
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(30日)交投淡靜,不過整體走勢有所轉弱,道指下跌90點或0.25%,成份股中只得7隻股份上升,至於下跌股份跌幅亦不大,P&G(PG.US)表現最差,但亦只跌0.86%;至於納指及標普500指數亦收跌,不過同樣跌幅不大,分別下跌0.16%及0.3%。
港股方面,昨日依然未見起色,恆指更曾一度跌穿23,000點水平,其後出現反彈,全日計微升25點,收報23,112點。執筆之時為港股最後一個交易日,總體而言,港股全年表現相當麻麻,恆指、國指及科指分別累跌15%、25%及35%,部分成份股表現出色,例如累升58%之李寧(02331.HK),但亦有部分如海底撈(06862.HK)及阿里健康(00241.HK)等跌幅超過七成。至於來年港股能否重拾升勢現階段仍言之尚早,畢竟困擾投資市場之變數,包括監管及內房債務問題仍會影響投資氣氛。不過既然港股今年表現如此不濟,按理料不會連續兩年也如此吧!所以明年港股有相當大機會出現反彈─這可能是較為「阿Q」的看法吧!
至於今日相信港股亦未必會有太大驚喜,預期將於現水平窄幅爭持,繼續於23,000至23,500點上落。最後祝願各位新年進步,身體健康。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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科網股帶動恆指先上試20天線阻力
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(30日)美股指數先升後回,美國首次申領失業救濟人數至19.8萬人,好過預期的20.6萬人,道指最多曾升近二百點,連續兩日破頂;標指亦曾破頂,不過兩項指數收市均倒跌,終止連升勢頭。中概股有買盤追入,蔚來(NIO.US)升超過14%,百度(BIDU.US)升超過一成,金龍中國指數一度抽升10%,是自2012年以來最大盤中漲幅,最終收升9.4%至8,990點,也是2008年以來最大單日升幅。有望帶動科網股走勢。另外中國公布官方製造業PMI錄得50.3,好過預期的50及前值的50.1,連續兩個月處於榮枯線之上,亦有利大市作出反彈。不過港股假日氣氛濃厚,成交量繼續縮減,對於大市能否成功突破中期阻力的指標性不大,目前較樂觀的反彈目標將會為23,500左右亦即20天線的水平。
技術走勢來看,恆指連日於黃金反彈比率0.382的首要目標23,300點止步,反彈力度有限,不過MACD開始出現牛訊號,短期於23,000點亦有較強支持。以黃金反彈比率起計0.5的話恆指有重上試23,500點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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