《大行報告》中金:ETF通即將落地 進一步豐富及便捷境內外投資者渠道和交易品種
就滬深港交易所及中國結算就交易所買賣基金(ETF)納入互聯互通標的整體方案達成共識,各方將抓緊做好ETF納入標的相關的業務和技術準備工作,包括修改相關規則並公開徵求意見,公告稱預計需6個月準備時間。中金發表報告表示,互聯互通機制自2014年11月開通以來,經過了多次標的及額度擴容,南北向成交保持高速增長、為港交所貢獻可觀收入增量。
該行指2021年以來(截至今年12月24日止)南向ADT(每日平均成交額)按年升71%至417億港元(雙邊)、佔港股12.4%,北向ADT按年升32%至1,205億人民幣(雙邊)、佔A股5.7%;今年前三季度互聯互通收入達21億港元、港交所總收入13%。
中金預計,此次ETF通的共識,將實現當前互聯互通機制僅限於兩地二級市場股票的突破,體現該機制下持續納入符合要求的標的、產品、資產的可能性。此外,不同於此次ETF互聯互通機制,2020年10月上市的深港ETF互通產品實際上是ETF互掛,即深圳或香港交易所上市的聯結ETF產品,通過QDII/RQFII將其90%或以上資產投資於對方市場上市的ETF產品。
該行指可進一步豐富及便捷境內外投資者的投資渠道和交易品種。當前A股市場非貨ETF資產規模達1.07萬億人民幣、今年首十一個月日均成交額395億人民幣,今年第三季末港股市場ETF資產規模8,162億港元、今年首三季日均成交額67億港元;目前ETF通的投資範圍尚不確定(如ETF流動性門檻、ETF成分股是否要求符合滬深港通名單、南向是否可投香港上市的境外ETF等),該行粗略測算,假設南北向ETF滲透率可達當前股票通水平(即南向15%/北向5%),則將增厚北向ADT39億元人民幣、南向ADT20億港元(均為雙邊),對應港交所收入增厚1億港元、佔2021年收入預測約0.5%。
中金認為,短期增量雖相對有限,但ETF通有助於兩地投資者更加便捷有效地實現跨境資產配置、改善ETF市場的投資結構和流動性。該行維持對港交所(00388.HK)「跑贏行業」評級及目標價580元。(w/u)
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