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中信里昂:LPR下調有利券商股,首選廣發證券

早前人民銀行把1年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)由3.85釐,下調5個基點至3.8釐,而5年期以上利率維持在4.65釐不變。中信里昂發表研究報吿指,對是次舉動感到意外,人行正在逐步放鬆貨幣政策,以降低經濟的融資成本,LPR下降預示着新一輪減息週期開始,雖然是次週期或不如過去激進,但應有利中國券商,亦意味着銀行及保險公司利潤將受壓。

該行表示,降息可以降低劵商的融資成本,在券商中的首選仍然是廣發證券,而是次LPR下調將使銀行利潤下降約1個基點,税前利潤降約1%,但認為相關影響微不足道,或被前兩次降準所抵銷,但指是次減息週期的長度及幅度仍存有不確定性,或予壓力給銀行及保險公司利潤。

至銀行股中,中信里昂看好招商銀行、郵儲銀行等理財業務強、風險管控嚴的銀行,以抵消保證金壓力。在保險公司中,該行看好保誠(2378.HK)和友邦保險(1299.HK)等區域性公司。

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