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《大行報告》花旗:人行意外下調一年期LPR利率 料對中資券商正面
花旗發表報告指,中國人民銀行昨日(20日)意外下調一年期LPR利率,為20個月以來首次。一年期LPR利率最新下降5點子至3.8%,至於五年期LPR則維持4.65%不變。 該行認為,是次人行舉動是超出市場預期,可能凸顯政策制定者急切需要提振經濟。同時,此是自2019年10月來首次LPR利率下調前中期借貸便利(MLF)並無降息,意味銀行必須為實體經濟作更多犧牲。 花旗預期,是次單邊的LPR利率下調或令內銀明年的淨息差平均降低1.1點子及盈利降低0.9%。在內銀股中,該行認為民生銀行(01988.HK)及浦發銀行(600000.SH)為主要的受害者,而招商銀行(03968.HK)及工商銀行(01398.HK)的盈利料較不容易受影響。 另外,報告提到,LPR利率降低對中資券商影響料為正面,因利率下調刺激經濟活動,或對資本市場是好兆頭,有利作為資本市場興旺的主要代表的高BETA券商股,行業首選買入為廣發証券(01776.HK)及中信証券(06030.HK)。
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