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美銀證券:料明年香港銀行股受惠加息 首選中銀香港

美銀證券發表研究報吿指,年初至今,香港銀行股大部分均獲得正回報,表現優於大市,其利潤率在今年上半年趨於穩定,估計隨著美聯儲於2022-24年預期加息,利潤率可望恢復,而在利潤率擴闊和資產質量穩定下,未來2至3年銀行盈利增長和股本回報率應有所改善,這將有助於銀行股獲多次重估並刺激股價表現,預期2022-23年香港銀行股盈利前景應更有利。

美銀已將恆生銀行(0011.HK)投資評級從“遜於大市”升至“買入”,目標價亦上調至161港元,因為恆生應該最有可能從聯儲局加息中受益,而中銀香港(2388.HK)仍是該行的行業首選,由於其估值吸引、高股息率及更多元化的業務組合,上調其目標價至30.1港元,而東亞銀行(0023.HK)股價在今年下跌近30%,估值為0.3倍市帳率,雖然估值便宜,惟其盈利增長潛力和盈利能力持續不振,故將其評級從“遜於大市”升至“中性”,但下調目標價至12.2港元。

美銀表示,隨著香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)見底及融資成本下降,今年下半年香港銀行業的淨息差趨穩,料明年銀行業利潤穩定並開始復甦,明年淨將擴大4至6個基點,而2023年的淨息差將擴闊6至11個基點。美銀又提到,在穩健的本地零售借貸和貿易融資強勁增長推動下,貸款增長呈現復甦,料明年銀行淨利息收入有望實現按年中高單位數增長,預計2021-22財年的派息率將高於2020年水平。

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