《大行報告》匯豐研究降民行(01988.HK)評級至「持有」 目標價下調至3.1元
匯豐環球研究發表報告,大幅下調對民行H股(01988.HK)目標價,由5.1元降至3.1元,民行H股投資評級亦降至「持有」,同時下調對民行今年至2023年盈利預測17%至32%。該行欣賞民行加強去年以來的去槓桿及加快不良貸款減值,但內地房地產業及宏觀經濟最新發展,或延長民行完成去風險週期所需時間,並推遲民行獲估值重評的時間。
該行指,民行關注類貸款於第三季按季升33個基點,或顯示不良貸款壓力增加,其中房地產業、礦業及批發與零售業風險較高,不良貸款及關注類貸款覆蓋率亦於第三季降至52.5%,爲2019年第四季以來最低。民行在中國恆大(03333.HK)的曝險較同業大,亦在非主權債券及金融機構的曝險高於同業,潛藏私營行業信貸風險。民行維持向主要股東泛海集團提供216億元人幣授信額度,爲期兩年,基於泛海集團未能贖回上季部分到期票據,民行或基於有關曝險面臨額外損失。
該行亦預期,民行淨息差於第四季及明年繼續受壓,貸款及存款市佔或受風險胃納減少而下跌,撥備前經營溢利於首三季按年跌8.9%,相關資本回報率亦按季跌27個基點至1.82%,或影響盈利產生及應對未來減值損失的能力。
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