鉀肥：與“糧”共舞，資源為王
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：王喆
長期來看，鉀作為與“糧食安全”緊密相關的全球戰略資源，預計隨開採成本逐步增加，供給端增速將持續放緩；中期來看，資源壁壘構築的行業龍頭主導格局將長期持續，龍頭主導下，行業偏緊供給持續，鉀肥的價格將主要受到下游糧食價格的影響；短期來看，預計2022年高糧價帶動的高需求下，全球供給缺口將增大，鉀肥價格將易漲難跌。預計鉀肥企業的業績中樞有望持續上行。
▍概覽：市場規模百億級，資源壁壘構築龍頭主導。
鉀肥是重要的農業生產資料，目前全球鉀肥的年均消耗量（摺合氯化鉀）近7000萬噸，市場規模在百億美元以上。行業主要壁壘是資源壁壘，全球資源集中在加拿大及前蘇聯地區，行業呈龍頭主導的格局，2020年CR5=72%。
▍長期：鉀肥作為全球戰略資源，供給或逐步趨緊。
鉀與“糧食安全”息息相關，對各國而言均是重要的戰略資源。目前行業開採的鉀礦資源多為中低埋深、高含量的鉀礦，預計隨低成本礦的逐步開採消耗，鉀礦的開採難度及開採成本將逐步提升，預計行業的供給將持續放緩，供給端或逐步趨緊。
▍中期：鉀肥行業壟斷格局有望延續，農產品週期帶動鉀肥週期。
鉀肥行業的高資本開支限制了新玩家進入。至2027年，行業新增規劃產能超過1000萬噸，多為頭部企業的低成本擴產項目，預計行業龍頭主導格局有望長期持續。預計龍頭主導下，行業呈現偏緊供給，鉀肥價格主要受到下游糧食價格的影響，二者呈現高度的相關性，且存在着近10個月的滯後效應。
▍短期：預計2022年全球鉀肥高景氣持續，價格易漲難跌。
目前全球主要的農產品價格均處於近10年90%分位以上。我們判斷2021年是農產品新景氣週期的起步階段，預計2022年伴隨經濟持續復甦，全球農產品需求依舊旺盛，將助推農產品價格偏強運行。高糧價帶動鉀肥高需求，預計2022年全球鉀肥需求有望保持近3%的增速。目前全球鉀肥開工率近80%，新增產能有限，行業庫存低位，疊加白鉀制裁的不確定性，預計全球鉀肥供應缺口將進一步擴大，鉀肥價格易漲難跌，國內大貿價或將提升至500-550美元/噸。
▍風險因素：
1）大合同價低於預期；2）農資需求不及預期；3）新增產能建設超預期；4）政策變動風險。
▍投資策略：
長期來看，鉀作為與“糧食安全”緊密相關的全球戰略資源，預計隨開採成本逐步增加，供給端增速將持續放緩；中期來看，資源壁壘構築的行業龍頭主導格局將長期持續，龍頭主導下，行業偏緊供給持續，鉀肥的價格將主要受到下游糧食價格的影響；短期來看，預計2022年高糧價帶動的高需求下，全球供給缺口將增大，鉀肥價格易漲難跌。預計鉀肥企業的業績中樞有望持續上行。維持行業“強於大市”評級，推薦鹽湖股份、亞鉀國際，維持“買入”評級；建議關注東方鐵塔。
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