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《大行報告》大摩料明年本港樓價跌2% 下調地產股目標價
摩根士丹利發表報告指,雖然屢有監管風險消息傳出,但本港地產股年初至今表現仍然跑贏恆指,主要是受到超低利率(一個月HIBOR爲6基點)、供應有限(私人住宅落成量爲1.5萬)、成交量強勁增長(新盤升24%,二手升29%),及銷售均價升6%所推動。 不過,該行認爲明年本港地產股的基本面會惡化,成交量及樓價均會出現下跌,其中成交量估計將按年減少5%至15%,而樓價(以中原CCL計)則料會下跌2%,對比市場預期爲升3%至10%。 大摩提到,在供應仍然有限下,行業要面對的新監管不確定性,但相信影響只會是負面。另一方面,雖然中港通關可帶來額外需求,不過僅影響高檔市場的10%成交量。而恆指下跌造成的負面財富效應在歷史上亦導致樓價下跌。加上市場對加息的預期,該行將對本港地產行業看法由「吸引」降至「審慎」。 該行將本港發展商的資產淨值(NAV)目標參考折讓由平均45%擴大至平均55%,與之前的下行週期一致,同時調整地產股評級及普遍下調目標價。其中,新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK)評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」;恆地(00012.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」;至於太古地產(01972.HK)評級則由「與大市同步」升至「增持」;冠君產業信託(02778.HK)評級則由「減持」升至「與大市同步」。 行業中,大摩最爲喜好寫字樓收租股,其次爲零售收租股,最後爲住宅發展商。股份方面喜好香港置地、恆隆地產(00101.HK)及長實集團(01113.HK)。該行最不偏好恆地、新世界及九龍倉置業(01997.HK)。
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