《大行報告》美銀證券:內銀首選郵儲行(01658.HK)及民行(01988.HK) 明年首季業績有望成催化劑
美銀證券發表報告,指由於中國股市在2022年可能會繼續波動,內銀板塊應具防守性,料因收益率高,盈利能見度佳,政策不確定性低;不過,宏觀疲軟和內地有可能降息,銀行不太可能獲得持續的重估。該行在H股中首選郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及民行(01988.HK),指明年首季業績有望成催化劑。
報告稱郵儲行估值比招商銀行(03968.HK)吸引,存款機構費用再談判可能有正面消息,該行對郵儲銀行評級「買入」,目標價上調至7.55元,該行對招商銀行持「跑輸大市」評級,目標價由40元上調至54元。
另外美銀證券指民生銀行(01988.HK)若盈利增長在2022年能追趕同行,有潛力獲估值重評,該行對民生銀行持「買入」評級,目標價由5.25元下調至4.2元。
美銀證券表示,房地產行業融資也將出現小幅復甦,銀行貸款將繼續支持企業,例如先進製造業、綠色金融、新基建和普惠中小企業貸款,LPR可能會下調,銀行間流動性應保持寬鬆,監於中國目前的債務槓桿率已經很高以及對增長質量的重視,預計2022年不會出現強勁信貸刺激。
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