里昂:看好券商和銀行,首選郵儲、招商銀行等股
中信里昂發表研究報吿指,歷時三天的中央經濟工作會議顯示,將更支持穩定經濟增長的立場,預期中國政策制定將更加寬鬆。展望明年,相對於金融科技和保險股,中信里昂比較看好券商和銀行股,並把財富管理熱潮視為中國金融公司選股的關鍵主題。
中信里昂指,穩定經濟增長已成為中國明年首要任務,預計新增顯性政府債將達7.8萬億元人民幣,比今年的7.2萬億高,料財政支出將隨着税務及費用減少而加速。而在貨幣方面,預計具針對性的措施將佔主導地位,亦指是人民銀行的再貸款工具將是保持流動性充裕的關鍵手段,料不會下調存款準備金率和利率。
該行提及,雖然房地產融資政策不會完全逆轉,但預計會透過微調來防範系統性風險。隨着金融科技整改將在明年底基本完成,主要金融科技公司可能會錄得業務復甦,復甦速度較慢但仍然不錯,預計信貸增長將從目前的按年10%增加至明年底的11%。
該行看好券商和銀行,乃因更強的流動性將有利於券商,而穩定的宏觀經濟環境將支持銀行資產質量和利潤趨勢。首選是中國郵政儲蓄銀行、招商銀行、廣發證券和香港交易所(0388.HK)。
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