穆迪:內地電力需求料因限電措施及GDP增長回落而放緩
穆迪副總裁兼高級信用評級主任簡震華預期,內地政府實施限電措施以來高能耗行業電力消費減少,受高煤價和政府的碳中和目標影響,加上今年的高基數效應,燃煤發電企業的運營環境嚴峻,預期明年電力消費量增長將放緩,電力需求增長將處於個位數中段。
此外,可再生能源將佔新增裝機容量主導地位,將加大電力公用事業企業的槓桿壓力,高煤價、與可再生能源的競爭亦將會對燃煤發電企業的信用質量構成壓力。
惟穆迪認為,今年第四季開始實施的中國煤電價格改革,將有助緩解短期盈利能力壓力,並在中期內提高電價調整的靈活性。短期內煤電裝機容量將有所增長,滿足2030年碳達峰之前的強勁需求,但增速將較慢。
相反,憑藉相對於煤電的成本競爭優勢,可再生能源(尤其是風電和太陽能發電)裝機容量將持續增長以支持政府的脫碳目標。穆迪預期,技術進步令設備成本下降、運營效率提升以及國內電網輸電設施擴張將會支持可再生能源發電的強勁增長。
為了滿足長遠電力需求增長和可再生能源發展,電網基礎設施投資也將持續高企,尤其是特高壓項目,中國兩家國有電網公司每年資本支出料達6,500億至7,000億元人民幣之間。
簡震華指,雖然槓桿壓力上升,但多數受評電力發行人對中國電力供應安全的戰略重要性較高,因此仍將獲得政府支持。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.