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《大行報告》美銀證券下調保險股目標價 首選友邦(01299.HK)、太保(02601.HK)及國壽(02628.HK)
美銀證券發表研究報告指出,中國保險業今年增長仍然疲弱,保費增長放緩,續保率低,利潤下降。雖然中國宏觀經濟疲弱影響保險銷售,加上客戶對收入增長缺乏信心的情況下,不願在充滿挑戰的環境中進行長期投資,但該行更為關注可管理的問題,包括公司於客戶、產品及政策方面,以及機構改革、養老金改革和稅收改革。 該行認為,機構改革的核心是佣金和團隊結構,改革進程也會受到宏觀和需求的影響,雖然大型險企正在引領改革潮,但預期至少需時兩年才能完成,而小型險企或考慮透過更多銀保合作和線上渠道以實現差異化。至於中國目前正進行的養老金改革,相信可為險企提供更好的機會,客戶一旦意識到養老金產品的重要性,估計有關趨勢可能會持續數年。而隨著行業增長放緩,預期中國監管機構將轉向推出更多支援措施。 此外,該行仍然首選友邦(01299.HK),認為其與內地同業相比,其於市場、客戶及渠道方面仍有業務擴張機會,即使持續受疫情影響,公司跨區域營運令增長更具彈性,目標價由109.4元下調至108元,評級「買入」。至於中資保險公司中,該行看好太保(02601.HK)及國壽(02628.HK),太保目標價由36元降至34元,國壽目標價由19.3元降至18.5元,兩股皆為「買入」評級(詳見另表)。
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