大新銀行料本港明年經濟增長2.3% 恆指上望28,000點
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部發表2022年經濟及市場前瞻,預期本地消費及投資可望繼續推動內需改善,本港經濟明年增長2.3%。大新銀行高級經濟師溫嘉煒認爲,港股暫時或缺乏明顯的利好因素推動恆指進一步大幅向上,恆指2022年上望28,000點,略爲看好金融、本地地產、新能源相關行業及防守性的公用和電訊板塊等。
他表示,隨着本港疫情持續受控,經濟活動逐漸恢復,加上消費券發放,消費氣氛續見改善,令失業率穩步回落。若明年首季起逐步恢復通關,或可支持零售業反彈,並刺激消費及旅遊與運輸相關行業就業,預計明年底前失業率將降至接近3%。
溫嘉煒續指,本港通脹已見回升,預料明年全年平均通脹爲2%;樓市方面,內地經濟放緩以及美國開始收緊貨幣政策,或會影響本地樓市氣氛,預料明年本港私人住宅市場樓價或溫和回落5%左右。
環球市場方面,大新經濟研究指出部份主要經濟體於今年第三季增長明顯放緩,但預計於明年年會回覆至長線平均水平,並估計新冠病毒變異株Omicron對經濟的影響會較Delta溫和;通脹壓力增加,主要央行可能要提早收緊政策,但整體市場流動性預料不會急劇收縮。
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