大和:料明年銀行業利息收入將穩定增長 看好郵儲銀行
大和發研報指,在內地銀行業方面,11月社會融資存量(TSF)及廣義貨幣(M2)供應量按年分別增長10.1%及8.5%,儘管11月TSF的數據稍為遜於預期,但認為該數據亦顯示出實體經濟融資需求出現回暖跡象,此外,10年期國債收益率按月錄降幅或由於流動性放鬆,認為該行業將受益於更好的貨幣環境,看好郵儲銀行(1658.HK)。
該行預期,明年貨幣環境將放鬆但會顯得剋制,預計監管機構將繼續通過進一步的貨幣行動為銀行提供支持,但同時預期監管機構將同時對各個行業維持相對嚴格的信貸政策,以避免產生副作用,料銀行業的流動性將逐步放鬆,部分行業的貸款利率將温和下降,但認為不太可能所有種類的貸款利息將因此而下調。
該行指出,預期明年銀行業利息收入將穩定增長,由於資產增長及淨息差壓力有限,對於明年資產增長而言,預計整體增長將基本保持不變,而與今年的水平相比,由於更正面的TSF擴張,貸款增長將錄反彈。對於明年淨息差,料銀行的資產收益率可能會略有下降,而在負債方面繼續受益於新的存款利率定價機制。
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