野村陸挺料明年首季中國經濟進一步轉弱 增長或僅3%
野村證券中國首席經濟學家陸挺預期中國經濟表現下滑的最壞情況未過,明年首季經濟料會進一步轉弱。由於舉行冬奧需要關閉多地工廠、房地產市場情況持續惡化、強勁出口表現難以爲繼及疫情防控維持「清零」政策等,估計中國明年第一季經濟增長或僅3%。
他在電話會議上指,中國未來數季要面臨多個需求衝擊,其中佔總體GDP達25%的房地產市場料將進一步收縮,估計新房銷售在未來數月或會下降30%至40%,土地銷售更可能減少50%,令地方政府收入大減,財政狀況進一步惡化。另一方面,中國料於明年11月前會維持疫情「清零」策略,但隨着其他國家陸續解除封鎖,中國維持「清零」的成本會增加,包括旅遊等環球服務貿易行業受挫,以及外資直接投資縮減。
陸挺提到,中國今年9月底開始放鬆政策,並於10月及11月逐步加強寬鬆措施,一如預期於上週五降準0.5個百分點,預料政府明年春季或需再顯着提升政策寬鬆力度,例如撤回部分限制房地產市場的政策,及對中小企業提供更多支持。
他預期,人民銀行明年上半年或會再降準0.5個百分點,不過由於通脹升溫及要維持銀行業穩定性,下調LPR等政策利率的可能性仍然較小。(ek/u)
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